An anti-cyclone over Madhya Pradesh has been pushing warm air across the west coast, delaying the setting in of sea breeze and causing the mercury to soar; temperatures to come down this weekend
A woman covers her head to shield herself from the scorching heat at Marine Drive on Wednesday. Pic/Shadab Khan
For four consecutive days, Mumbai has been reeling under intense heat, with temperatures soaring to 38.7°C on February 26—nearly six degrees above normal. The culprit? An anti-cyclone over Madhya Pradesh that has been pushing warm inland winds towards the west coast, delaying the sea breeze and keeping the city sweltering. Other coastal regions, including Ratnagiri, Dahanu, and Goa’s Panjim, have also recorded unusually high temperatures, making this early heatwave a cause for concern.
Panjim in Goa touched 37.6°C, while parts of Karnataka and Gujarat recorded temperatures between 35°C and 37°C. Heatwaves in India typically occur between March and June, making this early rise particularly alarming.
People shield themselves from the heat in Mumbai. Pic/Atul Kamble
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) attributes the unusual heat to an exceptionally dry winter. Mahesh Palawat, VP of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather, explained, “This year, India has experienced one of the driest winters. With no significant weather systems, rains have been absent. An anti-cyclone over Madhya Pradesh has been pushing warm easterly winds towards the west coast, delaying the sea breeze and prolonging land breeze, leading to a rise in temperatures. Additionally, high humidity levels due to proximity to the coast have intensified discomfort, creating heatwave-like conditions.”
The rainfall deficit has been stark, with Maharashtra recording a 99 per cent shortfall between January 1 and February 26. This prolonged dry spell has raised concerns about water scarcity and agricultural impacts. Dr Akshay Deoras, research scientist at the National Centre for Atmospheric Science, UK, highlighted the broader implications, stating, “Anthropogenic climate change is escalating meteorological and hydrological extremes worldwide, leading to frequent record-breaking weather events. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are being observed across all continents, pointing to a uniform global warming trend. Unless greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly reduced, extreme weather records will continue to be broken.”
According to Climate Central’s Climate Shift Index (CSI), human-induced climate change made Panaji’s recent temperatures at least five times more likely, while Mumbai’s heat was three times more likely. This data underscores the urgent need for climate action. However, relief is on the horizon, as maximum temperatures are expected to drop from February 28, easing the heatwave conditions.
Speaking about Mumbai weather, Sunil Kamble, head of IMD’s Regional Meteorological Centre in Mumbai, said, “This isn’t unusual for February; we’ve seen similar temperature spikes before. When temperatures exceed 37°C, we issue a yellow alert. This time, we issued a heatwave warning for Mumbai, Raigad, and Ratnagiri for 48 hours. Now that the alert period is over, we expect temperatures to fall below 35°C from February 28.”
Independent weather enthusiast Rushikesh Agre, known as “Mumbai Rains” on X, described this as Mumbai’s hottest week of 2025. He posted, “Mumbai will see a 4-5 degree drop in temperatures after February 27. Westerly winds will take over, leading to a significant cooldown, with maximum temperatures falling below 34-35°C in many parts of the city.”
Climatologist Rajesh Kapadia from Vagaries of the Weather noted that Mumbai’s recent heatwave was unusual for February, with temperatures crossing 38°C four times in a week—5-6°C above normal. “Such heat is expected in early March, not late February. This year, it arrived nearly two weeks early,” Kapadia said. He attributed it to northeast winds blocking the sea breeze, preventing cooling along the coast. However, relief is near. “A strong western disturbance has brought cooler north winds, and we expect a 3-4°C drop from February 28,” he added while sharing details on Mumbai weather.
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