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Optimizing Ad Spend: The Intersection of MMM, Attribution, and Incrementality

Updated on: 17 April,2025 03:34 PM IST  |  Mumbai
Buzz | sumit.zarchobe@mid-day.com

Varun Chivukula, a leading expert in ad measurement for Meta's largest advertisers, has been instrumental in addressing these challenges.

Optimizing Ad Spend: The Intersection of MMM, Attribution, and Incrementality

Varun Chivukula

In constantly changing realm of digital advertising, getting the most out of your ad budget means blending Marketing Mix Modelling (MMM), smart attribution strategies, and effective customer segmentation. With data privacy rules becoming stricter and platforms adjusting their policies, advertisers are finding it tougher to stay efficient while also honoring user privacy

Varun Chivukula, a leading expert in ad measurement for Meta's largest advertisers, has been instrumental in addressing these challenges. His work has successfully demonstrated the feasibility of conducting large-scale user-level incrementality experiments (randomized control trials) without exchanging raw user data, ensuring both privacy compliance and advertising effectiveness.

Chivukula's contributions have enabled major advertisers to establish incrementality-calibrated attribution and MMM models, optimizing approximately $2.5 billion in annual ad spend. During the disruption caused by Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) policy, which impacted nearly 70% of ad spend, he played a crucial role in guiding advertisers through this transition.

By leading the design and pilots of privacy-enhancing solutions as a long-term strategy and leveraging MMM as an interim measure, Chivukula helped businesses reduce reliance on singular methodologies and minimize biases inherent in traditional randomized control trials. His expertise in clean-roombased analytics has empowered advertisers to identify and quantify biases, improving decision-making and campaign performance.

Notably, he developed a match rate calculation mechanism for privacy-enhancing technologies, a key advancement in assessing the representativeness of these methodologies. Additionally, he collaborated with Amazon to integrate these innovations into AWS Clean Rooms, scaling prototype solutions into production-ready tools that have set new industry standards.

Despite significant regulatory and ecosystem challenges, Chivukula's efforts have helped sustain $2.5 billion in annual revenue for Meta. His development of a method to calculate match rates in privacy-enhancing environments has been significant. In one case, an advertiser expected a 60% match rate, but Chivukula's analysis revealed it was only 10%. This insight led to targeted improvements that increased the match rate to 70%, enhancing ad targeting efficiency and performance.

Beyond his technical innovations, Chivukula has contributed extensively to industry knowledge through published research. His work on calibrating MMMs with incrementality tests, analyzing the role of ad stock and saturation curves in marketing models, and improving randomized control trials has provided valuable insights to businesses navigating the complexities of digital advertising measurement.

Industry leaders recognize the importance of Chivukula's professional contributions in this rapidly evolving space. A statement from a leading marketing technology expert highlight, "As privacy concerns reshape the digital advertising industry, experts like Varun Chivukula are driving the innovation needed to balance performance with evolving regulations and user expectations around privacy. His work in privacy-enhancing technologies sets a new benchmark for measurement and optimization."

Varun believes, "The future of digital advertising will be defined by how well we can measure impact while respecting user privacy. The industry’s success depends on embracing innovative methodologies that drive efficiency without compromising consumer trust." His work stands at the intersection of privacy, precision, and performance helping brands thrive in the digital advertising landscape of the future.

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