Local body polls: The enemy within?

(From left) Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and his deputies Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. File pic/Shadab Khan

As the Supreme Court directs the Maharashtra government to hold local body elections, all eyes will now be on how the Mahayuti (BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar-headed NCP) handles seat sharing, poll campaigning and other issues.

While many see this as a numbers game, the real deal would be whether the alliance stays united or will the ambition and aspirations of local party workers lead to further cracks. The outcome will have an impact on the state government and may even redefine the remaining 4.5 years of the BJP-led Mahayuti government.

A few years back, NITI Aayog declared its ambitious plan for MMR, to double its GDP from 140 billion dollars in 2022-23 to 300 billion dollars by 2028; whoever runs these cities holds the key to this massive economic shift. No wonder then that control over local bodies is not merely about cleaning drains or fixing roads, but about control over cash-rich municipal corporations like those in Mumbai and fast-developing sister cities like Thane, Navi Mumbai, Mira Bhayandar and Vasai Virar.

For BJP, winning the BMC election has been a long-standing dream. Though BJP is in complete control at the Centre and in the state, wresting India's richest civic body from the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT), which has helmed it for 25 years, would be a massive symbolic victory for BJP.

One does not need political pundits to predict that the BJP will do everything - divide and rule, backdoor deals with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), and any other political games needed - to make this happen.

So, to cut a long story short, local body elections scheduled at the fag end of 2025 will be more than just routine polls. They will be the first big test for the ruling alliance after their victory in the 2024 state Assembly. The
real question now isn't just about numbers - it's whether the Mahayuti, which came to power together, can still hold itself together as the cracks already visible in the alliance start to widen further, especially during seat-sharing discussions.

Last year, the BJP's slogan "Ek hain toh safe hain" (together we are safe) played a big part in solidifying the Mahayuti's grip on power. It worked like a charm, helped BJP win a major share (132 seats) of the 288 Assembly seats, and enabled Devendra Fadnavis to make a triumphant return as chief minister.

But for the Fadnavis government, the honeymoon period has been short-lived. The cracks within the Mahayuti started to appear almost immediately. There were fights over power-sharing, over portfolios and over the Nashik and Raigad guardian minister post (the issue still remains unresolved). The tension was palpable, but the alliance somehow held it together, at least until now.

For BJP, or Mahayuti, the real threat is not MVA or Uddhav Thackeray, but its own alliance partners. Shinde claims to be leading the "real" Shiv Sena, and if he doesn't get a good deal in seat-sharing or if his camp doesn't perform well, he could end up being blamed for handing over the BMC to BJP. His reputation could take a massive hit, which he can't afford.

It's the same story in Thane and Navi Mumbai. Despite being in an alliance, it's Shinde vs BJP once again. The rivalry is clear. Shinde is fondly referred to as "Bhai" by his followers, while BJP leader Ganesh Naik is popularly called "Dada" in his citadel-Navi Mumbai. Both sides have ignored alliance "Dharma" and have been seen taking potshots at each other, even in public. Fadnavis' reaction to the Supreme Court's order that local body polls be notified needs to be read carefully. The CM claimed that Mahayuti would contest these elections together, "except in one or two places where the situation may be different."

A statement by those at the helm of affairs, clearly underlining that things won't be smooth sailing, especially in urban strongholds where BJP and Shinde Sena both want to come out on top, is telling. Local party workers want to contest independently as they feel that their party has the edge in their region and, more importantly, to fulfil their dream and ambition to rise to power as ‘Nagarsevak' (municipal corporator). Whether to go with local sentiment on the ground level or adhere to alliance ‘Dharma' is where the alliance's unity will really be tested.

The only factor that might prevent such a split is the political situation after Operation Sindoor. The retaliation by the Indian Army has only boosted public sentiment for the BJP, the way it was seen during the Uri surgical strike. The famous dialogue in the movie Uri, "How's the Josh?", to which army personnel reply, "High, Sir", can be seen today in many citizens amid the ongoing strikes on Pakistan. The military exercise has again given an advantage to the BJP and weakened the bargaining power of its alliance partners.

The Opposition is in no better position. Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT), and even Sharad Pawar's NCP are considering whether to fight together or go solo in the upcoming polls, especially after their Assembly defeat.

So, as we approach the polls, one question remains: will the alliance stay united or will ambition tear it apart?

Sanjeev Shivadekar is political editor, mid-day. He tweets @SanjeevScribe
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