Kerala, Mumbai will follow as wind conditions are favourable: Climatologists; once established over the Andaman region, the monsoon is likely to progress toward Kerala within the next 15 days
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Atmospheric and oceanic conditions are becoming favourable for the southwest monsoon to set in over the Andaman Sea and nearby areas around May 14, which closely aligns with the region’s typical onset date of May 15, according to some weather experts.
Others, however, consider this an early onset, citing May 19 as the normal date.
Currently, the southwesterly winds are strengthening around the Andaman region, and if sea surface temperatures remain conducive as it is currently, both are the critical indicators for the advancement of the monsoon over the region.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has noted that westerly winds in the lower tropospheric levels up to 3 km altitude have intensified to around 20 knots, one of the key parameters the agency uses to declare the arrival of the monsoon.
Once established over the Andaman region, the monsoon is likely to progress toward Kerala within the next 15 days. “This would mark the official onset of the monsoon over the Indian mainland. From there, it typically takes another 10 days for the rains to reach Mumbai and adjoining areas as the system moves northward along the western coast,” said an official from IMD.
Meteorologists will continue to monitor wind patterns, pressure systems, and sea surface temperatures over the coming days as the annual monsoon system begins its crucial journey across the subcontinent, IMD officials said.
Explaining the prevailing system climatologist Rajesh Kapadia from Vagaries of weather, a private weather blog said: “The cross equatorial winds in the Bay are gaining strength fast, and South Westerlies upto 700 levels are expected to reach favourable speeds by 14th May. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) is also better and conducive.”
He added, “With moisture and sufficient wind strength, if this momentum is maintained, the southwest monsoon (Bay branch) can advance into Andaman by May 14 as a moderate current.”
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